Change analysis for Bulgaria for PRIMAP-hist v2.7_final compared to v2.6.1_final

Overview over emissions by sector and gas

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the country reported priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the third party priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

Overview over changes

In the country reported priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -5.6%% (-2684.63 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.2%% (-96.49 Gg CO2 / year)

In the third party priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -1.1%% (-565.72 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.0%% (-27.62 Gg CO2 / year)

Most important changes per scenario and time frame

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -1757.33 Gg CO2 / year (-5.4%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -683.95 Gg CO2 / year (-18.0%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CO2 with -124.37 Gg CO2 / year (-15.5%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with -122.84 Gg CO2 / year (-14.1%)
• 5: 3.A, CH4 with -62.09 Gg CO2 / year (-3.1%)

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -48.37 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -29.82 Gg CO2 / year (-0.5%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with -10.84 Gg CO2 / year (-2.8%)
• 4: M.AG.ELV, N2O with -6.61 Gg CO2 / year (-0.2%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with -3.66 Gg CO2 / year (-1.2%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -563.72 Gg CO2 / year (-1.7%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -2.00 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -17.90 Gg CO2 / year (-0.0%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -9.73 Gg CO2 / year (-0.3%)
• 3: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with -0.00 Gg CO2 / year (-3.5%)
• 4: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Notes on data changes

Here we list notes explaining important emissions changes for the country.

• Data from BTR1 has been replaced by data from the 2025 National Inventory Submission, This leads to changes in several sectors and gases which are relatively small in terms of total emissions and mostly affect 2023.
• The main change for 2023 is a 5.4% reduction in energy CO2 emissions where 2023 growth rates in the CR data are lower than the growth rates in EI 2024 used for extrapolation in PRIMAP-hist v2.6.1.
• Lower emissions in 2.A (CO2), 1.B.2 (CO2), 3.A (CH4), 2 (HFCs) come from replacing extrapolated data using third party growth rates by direct use of country reported data.
• Changes in cumulative emissions in the CR time-series are very small.
• Changes in the TP scenario are very small and mainly come from the updated EI data for energy CO2. Some contributions come from sectors without third party data, e.g. CO2 in 2.G and PFCs.

Changes by sector and gas

For each scenario and time frame the changes are displayed for all individual sectors and all individual gases. In the sector plot we use aggregate Kyoto GHGs in AR6GWP100. In the gas plot we usenational total emissions without LULUCF.

country reported scenario

2023

1990-2023

third party scenario

2023

1990-2023

Detailed changes for the scenarios:

country reported scenario (HISTCR):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -1757.33 Gg CO2 / year (-5.4%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -683.95 Gg CO2 / year (-18.0%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CO2 with -124.37 Gg CO2 / year (-15.5%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with -122.84 Gg CO2 / year (-14.1%)
• 5: 3.A, CH4 with -62.09 Gg CO2 / year (-3.1%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -48.37 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -29.82 Gg CO2 / year (-0.5%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with -10.84 Gg CO2 / year (-2.8%)
• 4: M.AG.ELV, N2O with -6.61 Gg CO2 / year (-0.2%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with -3.66 Gg CO2 / year (-1.2%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 45109.25 Gg CO2 / year which is 76.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -5.4% (-1886.35 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-50.82 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  The changes come from the following subsectors:
  • 1.A: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 42985.38 Gg CO2 / year which is 95.3% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -5.5% (-1802.10 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-48.34 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
  • 1.B.1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 1070.54 Gg CO2 / year which is 2.4% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 4.1% (27.48 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.1% (0.81 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
  • 1.B.2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 1053.32 Gg CO2 / year which is 2.3% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -10.1% (-111.73 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.6% (-3.28 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 4681.52 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.0% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -16.6% (-789.97 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.6% (-39.70 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 6043.71 Gg CO2 / year which is 10.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-3.72 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-7.73 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 2790.08 Gg CO2 / year which is 4.8% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.2% (-4.59 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (1.76 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: No data

third party scenario (HISTTP):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -563.72 Gg CO2 / year (-1.7%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -2.00 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -17.90 Gg CO2 / year (-0.0%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with -9.73 Gg CO2 / year (-0.3%)
• 3: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with -0.00 Gg CO2 / year (-3.5%)
• 4: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 46681.26 Gg CO2 / year which is 74.6% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.6% (-563.72 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.0% (-17.90 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 4095.33 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.5% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.0% (-2.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.2% (-9.73 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 6110.99 Gg CO2 / year which is 9.8% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 5539.63 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 154.74 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).