Change analysis for Canada for PRIMAP-hist v2.7_final compared to v2.6.1_final

Overview over emissions by sector and gas

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the country reported priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the third party priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

Overview over changes

In the country reported priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -1.7%% (-12282.15 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.4%% (-3071.95 Gg CO2 / year)

In the third party priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by 0.6%% (4280.25 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by 0.0%% (102.85 Gg CO2 / year)

Most important changes per scenario and time frame

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.2, CH4 with -7820.11 Gg CO2 / year (-13.7%)
• 2: 1.B.2, CO2 with -2737.60 Gg CO2 / year (-13.8%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with 2501.63 Gg CO2 / year (6.4%)
• 4: 1.A, CO2 with -2425.99 Gg CO2 / year (-0.5%)
• 5: 4, CH4 with -945.56 Gg CO2 / year (-4.3%)

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -1976.00 Gg CO2 / year (-0.4%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with 898.42 Gg CO2 / year (2.3%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CH4 with -866.11 Gg CO2 / year (-1.2%)
• 4: 1.A, CH4 with -415.85 Gg CO2 / year (-6.5%)
• 5: 4, CH4 with -401.50 Gg CO2 / year (-1.9%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 4244.14 Gg CO2 / year (0.8%)
• 2: 1.C, CO2 with 36.12 Gg CO2 / year (4523.9%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 94.98 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 2: 1.C, CO2 with 7.87 Gg CO2 / year (5152.1%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Notes on data changes

Here we list notes explaining important emissions changes for the country.

• Data from BTR1 has been replaced by data from the 2025 National Inventory Submission, This leads to changes in several sectors and gases which are small in terms of total emissions.
• CH4 and CO2 emissions in 1.B.2 are lower in 2023 and slightly lower cumulatively because emissions factors for venting and flaring of natural gas have been changed.
• Energy CO2 emissions are slightly lower because 2023 growth rates in the CR data are lower than the growth rates in EI 2024 used for extrapolation in PRIMAP-hist v2.6.1.
• CO2 emissions in 2.C are higher for all years post 1990 because the emissions factor for pig iron has been increased.
• Waste CH4 emissions are lower for all years post 1990 due to a decreased emissions factor for solid waste disposal sites (despite higher estimates of waste amount)
• Changes in the TP scenario are very small and mainly come from the updated EI data for energy CO2.
• Emissions from 1.C (Carbon capture and storage) are non-zero for the first time (but very small)

Changes by sector and gas

For each scenario and time frame the changes are displayed for all individual sectors and all individual gases. In the sector plot we use aggregate Kyoto GHGs in AR6GWP100. In the gas plot we usenational total emissions without LULUCF.

country reported scenario

2023

1990-2023

third party scenario

2023

1990-2023

Detailed changes for the scenarios:

country reported scenario (HISTCR):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.2, CH4 with -7820.11 Gg CO2 / year (-13.7%)
• 2: 1.B.2, CO2 with -2737.60 Gg CO2 / year (-13.8%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with 2501.63 Gg CO2 / year (6.4%)
• 4: 1.A, CO2 with -2425.99 Gg CO2 / year (-0.5%)
• 5: 4, CH4 with -945.56 Gg CO2 / year (-4.3%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -1976.00 Gg CO2 / year (-0.4%)
• 2: 2, CO2 with 898.42 Gg CO2 / year (2.3%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CH4 with -866.11 Gg CO2 / year (-1.2%)
• 4: 1.A, CH4 with -415.85 Gg CO2 / year (-6.5%)
• 5: 4, CH4 with -401.50 Gg CO2 / year (-1.9%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 568381.99 Gg CO2 / year which is 80.7% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -2.4% (-13680.53 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.6% (-3625.34 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  The changes come from the following subsectors:
  • 1.A: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 498321.34 Gg CO2 / year which is 87.7% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.6% (-3212.68 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.5% (-2528.56 Gg CO2 / year).
  • 1.B.1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 1383.07 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.2% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 3.6% (56.96 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.4% (7.54 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
  • 1.B.2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 68641.53 Gg CO2 / year which is 12.1% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -13.7% (-10560.93 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -1.3% (-1112.19 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
  • 1.C: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 36.05 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.0% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 4523.9% (36.12 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 5152.1% (7.87 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    For 1990-2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 54499.47 Gg CO2 / year which is 7.7% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 4.7% (2498.17 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 1.6% (884.66 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 56451.15 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.0% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.5% (-285.83 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (17.23 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 22978.45 Gg CO2 / year which is 3.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -3.4% (-813.95 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -1.5% (-348.50 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 2012.57 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).

third party scenario (HISTTP):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 4244.14 Gg CO2 / year (0.8%)
• 2: 1.C, CO2 with 36.12 Gg CO2 / year (4523.9%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 94.98 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 2: 1.C, CO2 with 7.87 Gg CO2 / year (5152.1%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 636653.37 Gg CO2 / year which is 82.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.7% (4280.25 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (102.85 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 48499.28 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 65495.38 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.5% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 21951.58 Gg CO2 / year which is 2.8% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 2012.57 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).