Change analysis for Italy for PRIMAP-hist v2.7_final compared to v2.6.1_final

Overview over emissions by sector and gas

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the country reported priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the third party priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

Overview over changes

In the country reported priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -0.6%% (-2321.86 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by 0.1%% (374.49 Gg CO2 / year)

In the third party priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by 1.4%% (5329.63 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by 0.1%% (548.40 Gg CO2 / year)

Most important changes per scenario and time frame

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -4550.48 Gg CO2 / year (-1.5%)
• 2: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 1374.93 Gg CO2 / year (15.4%)
• 3: 4, CH4 with 1269.36 Gg CO2 / year (7.4%)
• 4: 1.B.2, CH4 with -436.54 Gg CO2 / year (-16.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, CO2 with 212.22 Gg CO2 / year (92.4%)

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 322.49 Gg CO2 / year (2.9%)
• 2: 1.A, CO2 with -156.70 Gg CO2 / year (-0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 129.62 Gg CO2 / year (1.4%)
• 4: 4, CH4 with 46.10 Gg CO2 / year (0.2%)
• 5: 4, N2O with 43.20 Gg CO2 / year (2.9%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 5298.72 Gg CO2 / year (1.9%)
• 2: 1.B.3, CH4 with 30.91 Gg CO2 / year (7.3%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 547.49 Gg CO2 / year (0.1%)
• 2: 1.B.3, CH4 with 0.91 Gg CO2 / year (0.2%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Notes on data changes

Here we list notes explaining important emissions changes for the country.

• Data from BTR1 has been replaced by data from the 2025 National Inventory Submission. This leads to changes in several sectors and gases which are small in terms of total emissions.
  • The main change for 2023 is a 1.5% reduction in energy CO2 emissions where 2023 growth rates in the CR data are lower than the growth rates in EI2024 used for extrapolation in PRIMAP-hist v2.6.1.
  • CO2 from M.AG.ELV is much higher in 2023 because the country reported emissions show a return to 2021 levels while EDGAR data shows a flat emissions profile and thus the EDGAR extrapolated 2023 value used in v2.6.1 is similar to the low 2022 value.
  • N2O from M.AG.ELV in 2023 is higher for the same reason. For all years the time-series is slightly higher because of changed emissions factors for manure management and updated activity data for organic fertilizers.
  • Waste N2O emissions are higher post-2009 because of updated activity data.
  • Waste CH4 is higher in 2023 because emissions are increasing in CR data while EDGAR shows decreasing emissions leading to lower emissions in v2.6.1
  • CH4 in 1.B.2 is lower in 2023 because emissions are decreasing in CR data while EDGAR shows constant emissions leading to higher emissions in v2.6.1
  • HFC emissions are higher after 2012 due to updated activity data.
• Changes in the TP scenario are very small and mainly come from the updated EI data for energy CO2.
  • 2023 CH4 emissions in 1.B.3 are higher because there exists no third party data and the 2023 data replaces numerical extrapolation.

Changes by sector and gas

For each scenario and time frame the changes are displayed for all individual sectors and all individual gases. In the sector plot we use aggregate Kyoto GHGs in AR6GWP100. In the gas plot we usenational total emissions without LULUCF.

country reported scenario

2023

1990-2023

third party scenario

2023

1990-2023

Detailed changes for the scenarios:

country reported scenario (HISTCR):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -4550.48 Gg CO2 / year (-1.5%)
• 2: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 1374.93 Gg CO2 / year (15.4%)
• 3: 4, CH4 with 1269.36 Gg CO2 / year (7.4%)
• 4: 1.B.2, CH4 with -436.54 Gg CO2 / year (-16.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, CO2 with 212.22 Gg CO2 / year (92.4%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 322.49 Gg CO2 / year (2.9%)
• 2: 1.A, CO2 with -156.70 Gg CO2 / year (-0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 129.62 Gg CO2 / year (1.4%)
• 4: 4, CH4 with 46.10 Gg CO2 / year (0.2%)
• 5: 4, N2O with 43.20 Gg CO2 / year (2.9%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 337159.44 Gg CO2 / year which is 81.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.7% (-5196.72 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.0% (-150.12 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 25507.88 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.1% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-30.77 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.4% (128.74 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 31215.74 Gg CO2 / year which is 7.5% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 5.0% (1540.15 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.9% (307.01 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  The changes come from the following subsectors:
  • 3.A: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 20259.08 Gg CO2 / year which is 64.9% of category M.AG emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -0.2% (-38.35 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-23.60 Gg CO2 / year).
  • M.AG.ELV: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 10956.66 Gg CO2 / year which is 35.1% of category M.AG emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 14.8% (1578.49 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 2.4% (330.61 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    For 1990-2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 20143.56 Gg CO2 / year which is 4.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 7.2% (1365.49 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.4% (88.87 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 831.41 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).

third party scenario (HISTTP):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 5298.72 Gg CO2 / year (1.9%)
• 2: 1.B.3, CH4 with 30.91 Gg CO2 / year (7.3%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 547.49 Gg CO2 / year (0.1%)
• 2: 1.B.3, CH4 with 0.91 Gg CO2 / year (0.2%)
• 3: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 321860.89 Gg CO2 / year which is 79.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 1.8% (5329.62 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.1% (548.40 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 33249.20 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 34008.78 Gg CO2 / year which is 8.4% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 13004.65 Gg CO2 / year which is 3.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 831.41 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).