Change analysis for Russian Federation for PRIMAP-hist v2.7_final compared to v2.6.1_final

Overview over emissions by sector and gas

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the country reported priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the third party priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

Overview over changes

In the country reported priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by 0.5%% (10083.90 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.4%% (-7556.42 Gg CO2 / year)

In the third party priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by 0.8%% (21763.00 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by 0.0%% (618.17 Gg CO2 / year)

Most important changes per scenario and time frame

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 54391.60 Gg CO2 / year (3.9%)
• 2: 1.B.1, CH4 with -32470.40 Gg CO2 / year (-43.1%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CH4 with -4967.64 Gg CO2 / year (-7.4%)
• 4: 2, CO2 with -4208.28 Gg CO2 / year (-2.1%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with -3034.03 Gg CO2 / year (-4.3%)

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.1, CH4 with -12025.84 Gg CO2 / year (-17.9%)
• 2: 4, CH4 with 3417.15 Gg CO2 / year (5.3%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with -1671.93 Gg CO2 / year (-0.9%)
• 4: 1.A, CO2 with 1633.81 Gg CO2 / year (0.1%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with 1563.19 Gg CO2 / year (4.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 21763.00 Gg CO2 / year (1.1%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 1.A, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, NF3 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 618.17 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 1.A, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, NF3 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Notes on data changes

Here we list notes explaining important emissions changes for the country.

• Data from BTR1 has been replaced by data from the 2025 National Inventory Submission. This leads to changes in several sectors and gases which are small in terms of total emissions.
  • The main change for 2023 is a 3.9% increase in energy CO2 emissions where data for post 2020 have been updated and 2023 growth rates in the CR data are higher than the growth rates in EI2024 used for extrapolation in PRIMAP-hist v2.6.1. Growth rates in EI2025 are higher than EI2024 as well.
  • A further high impact change is that CH4 from solid fuels is lower post 2000 due to lower emissions factors.
  • CH4 from 1.B.2 is lower post-2018 because emissions factor for natural gas have been reduced. CO@ is higher because the emissions factor for gas flaring has been increased five-fold.
  • CO2 from chemical industry (2.B) has changed for most years since 2000 because both emissions factor and activity data for Hydrogen production have been updated.
  • CH4 from waste is higher for all years before 2023 because different emissions factors have been updated leading to in total higher emissions.
• Changes in the TP scenario are very small and mainly come from the updated EI data for energy CO2.

Changes by sector and gas

For each scenario and time frame the changes are displayed for all individual sectors and all individual gases. In the sector plot we use aggregate Kyoto GHGs in AR6GWP100. In the gas plot we usenational total emissions without LULUCF.

country reported scenario

2023

1990-2023

third party scenario

2023

1990-2023

Detailed changes for the scenarios:

country reported scenario (HISTCR):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 54391.60 Gg CO2 / year (3.9%)
• 2: 1.B.1, CH4 with -32470.40 Gg CO2 / year (-43.1%)
• 3: 1.B.2, CH4 with -4967.64 Gg CO2 / year (-7.4%)
• 4: 2, CO2 with -4208.28 Gg CO2 / year (-2.1%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with -3034.03 Gg CO2 / year (-4.3%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.1, CH4 with -12025.84 Gg CO2 / year (-17.9%)
• 2: 4, CH4 with 3417.15 Gg CO2 / year (5.3%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with -1671.93 Gg CO2 / year (-0.9%)
• 4: 1.A, CO2 with 1633.81 Gg CO2 / year (0.1%)
• 5: 1.B.2, CO2 with 1563.19 Gg CO2 / year (4.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 1596356.80 Gg CO2 / year which is 78.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 1.0% (15695.60 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.5% (-9223.56 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 245152.21 Gg CO2 / year which is 12.0% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.3% (-3398.47 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.8% (-1631.49 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 103077.50 Gg CO2 / year which is 5.1% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.2% (-1195.08 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-65.42 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 87798.95 Gg CO2 / year which is 4.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.1% (-1018.18 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 5.0% (3364.05 Gg CO2 / year). For 1990-2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 5232.00 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).

third party scenario (HISTTP):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 21763.00 Gg CO2 / year (1.1%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 1.A, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, NF3 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with 618.17 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 1.A, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: 2, NF3 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 2250360.60 Gg CO2 / year which is 84.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 1.0% (21763.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (618.17 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 177174.33 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.6% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 109759.87 Gg CO2 / year which is 4.1% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 130843.36 Gg CO2 / year which is 4.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 5232.00 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).