Change analysis for Ukraine for PRIMAP-hist v2.7_final compared to v2.6.1_final

Overview over emissions by sector and gas

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the country reported priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

The following figures show the aggregate national total emissions excluding LULUCF AR6GWP100 for the third party priority scenario. The dotted linesshow the v2.6.1_final data.

Overview over changes

In the country reported priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -1.8%% (-4345.41 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.1%% (-423.32 Gg CO2 / year)

In the third party priority scenario we have the following changes for aggregate Kyoto GHG and national total emissions excluding LULUCF (M.0.EL):

• Emissions in 2023 have changed by -4.2%% (-8231.29 Gg CO2 / year)
• Emissions in 1990-2023 have changed by -0.1%% (-474.79 Gg CO2 / year)

Most important changes per scenario and time frame

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.2, CH4 with -3744.79 Gg CO2 / year (-11.8%)
• 2: 1.A, CO2 with 1451.57 Gg CO2 / year (1.2%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with -1353.82 Gg CO2 / year (-7.6%)
• 4: 2, CH4 with -566.98 Gg CO2 / year (-76.4%)
• 5: 2, N2O with 560.28 Gg CO2 / year (41.1%)

In the country reported priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 5, N2O with -1120.58 Gg CO2 / year (-100.0%)
• 2: 3.A, CH4 with 499.32 Gg CO2 / year (2.5%)
• 3: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 282.92 Gg CO2 / year (1.3%)
• 4: 1.B.2, CH4 with -110.14 Gg CO2 / year (-0.2%)
• 5: 1.A, CO2 with 44.92 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -8231.28 Gg CO2 / year (-7.8%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

In the third party priority scenario the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -474.79 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Notes on data changes

Here we list notes explaining important emissions changes for the country.

• Data from BTR1 has been replaced by data from the 2025 National Inventory Submission. This leads to changes in several sectors and gases which are relatively small in terms of total emissions.
  • CH4 in 1.B.2 is lower in 2023 because of declining emissions which are not modeled by EDGAR data used for extrapolation in v2.6.1.
  • Energy CO2 emissions are slightly higher for 2023 because growth rates in the CR data are higher than the growth rates in EI2024 used for extrapolation in PRIMAP-hist v2.6.1.
  • CO2 IPPU emissions are lower in 2023 because metal industry emissions are lower than in v2.6.1 because the country reported data shows a decline not present in EDGAR data.
  • CH4 from the IPPU sector is lower because emissions from the chemical industry have dropped to zero (because there are no emissions reported for 2.B.8.b. (Ethylene) and 2.B.8.c. (Ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomer). In contrast N2O from the chemical industry is up because of an increase in nitric Acid production. CO2 from chemical industry is up due to an increase in Ammonia production.
  • N2O in the “other” sector is now zero as it is reported as “not occurring” (NO) which we interpret as zero. This is the main change for cumulative emissions.
  • There are small changes for agricultural emissions for all years due to changes in emissions factors and activity data.
• Changes in the TP scenario are limited to 2023 and come from the updated EI data for energy CO2.

Changes by sector and gas

For each scenario and time frame the changes are displayed for all individual sectors and all individual gases. In the sector plot we use aggregate Kyoto GHGs in AR6GWP100. In the gas plot we usenational total emissions without LULUCF.

country reported scenario

2023

1990-2023

third party scenario

2023

1990-2023

Detailed changes for the scenarios:

country reported scenario (HISTCR):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.B.2, CH4 with -3744.79 Gg CO2 / year (-11.8%)
• 2: 1.A, CO2 with 1451.57 Gg CO2 / year (1.2%)
• 3: 2, CO2 with -1353.82 Gg CO2 / year (-7.6%)
• 4: 2, CH4 with -566.98 Gg CO2 / year (-76.4%)
• 5: 2, N2O with 560.28 Gg CO2 / year (41.1%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 5, N2O with -1120.58 Gg CO2 / year (-100.0%)
• 2: 3.A, CH4 with 499.32 Gg CO2 / year (2.5%)
• 3: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 282.92 Gg CO2 / year (1.3%)
• 4: 1.B.2, CH4 with -110.14 Gg CO2 / year (-0.2%)
• 5: 1.A, CO2 with 44.92 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 170245.71 Gg CO2 / year which is 70.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.4% (-2362.85 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.0% (-67.27 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 22003.10 Gg CO2 / year which is 9.2% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -6.2% (-1419.20 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-41.74 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 33173.85 Gg CO2 / year which is 13.8% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.4% (121.99 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 1.8% (795.33 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 14747.12 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.1% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -1.3% (-202.10 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.1% (10.94 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 0.00 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.0% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -100.0% (-483.26 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -100.0% (-1120.58 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  For 1990-2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  

third party scenario (HISTTP):

Most important changes per time frame

For 2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -8231.28 Gg CO2 / year (-7.8%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

For 1990-2023 the following sector-gas combinations have the highest absolute impact on national total KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) emissions in 1990-2023 (top 5):

• 1: 1.A, CO2 with -474.79 Gg CO2 / year (-0.1%)
• 2: 1.A, CH4 with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 3: 2, HFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 4: 2, PFCS (AR6GWP100) with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)
• 5: M.AG.ELV, N2O with 0.00 Gg CO2 / year (0.0%)

Changes in the main sectors for aggregate KyotoGHG (AR6GWP100) are

• 1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 137733.06 Gg CO2 / year which is 72.9% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -5.8% (-8231.28 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-474.79 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
  
  The changes come from the following subsectors:
  • 1.A: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 103210.01 Gg CO2 / year which is 74.9% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by -7.7% (-8231.28 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by -0.1% (-474.79 Gg CO2 / year). For 2023 the changes per gas are:
    
    There is no subsector information available in PRIMAP-hist.
  • 1.B.1: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 4425.25 Gg CO2 / year which is 3.2% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
  • 1.B.2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 30097.79 Gg CO2 / year which is 21.9% of category 1 emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 2: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 11371.57 Gg CO2 / year which is 6.0% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• M.AG: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 28838.57 Gg CO2 / year which is 15.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 4: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 10604.36 Gg CO2 / year which is 5.6% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).
• 5: Total sectoral emissions in 2022 are 496.51 Gg CO2 / year which is 0.3% of M.0.EL emissions. 2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year). 1990-2023 Emissions have changed by 0.0% (0.00 Gg CO2 / year).